French

The OIF has just released its 2022 report: https://www.francophonie.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/Synth%C3%A8se_L...

According to them, there are 321 million French speakers. A 47 million difference with Ethnologue.

They say: "Pour le détail des calculs, voir la note de recherche Richard MARCOUX, Laurent RICHARD et Alexandre WOLFF. Estimation des populations francophones dans le monde en 2022. Sources et démarches méthodologiques. Québec, 2022, Observatoire démographique et statistique de l’espace francophone (ODSEF) Université Laval. Voir QRcode."

This study from March 2022 is here: https://observatoire.francophonie.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/odsef-l...

There are 3 tables ("Tableau 11", "Tableau 12", and "Tableau 13") p. 172-175 (185-188 of the PDF) with the estimated numbers of French speakers by country (depending on the membership status at the OIF).

I checked a few countries. Most differences between OIF and Ethnologue's estimates are in African countries. But they're often not that big and I think mainly due to the total population growth in these countries. For instance, the OIF estimates that there are 5,404,000 French speakers in Burkina Faso, a country with a total population of 22 million inhabitants (so 24.5% of the total). Ethnologue's estimate from 2018 is 4,750,000 French speakers, at that time the total population in Burkina Faso was 19.75 million people so the % of French speakers was 4.75/19.75 = 24.1%. I think Ethnologue should follow the OIF for Burkina Faso and all similar cases. This should add a total of about 14 million French speakers around the world.

On the other hand, there's a big outlier: Congo (DRC): 48,925,000 French speakers according to the OIF vs 15,500,000 according to Ethnologue (based on my estimate). That's 33,425,000 difference. So 71% of the overall difference between Ethnologue and the OIF. But Ethnologue indicates that the total population of Congo is 86,791,000 (2019 UNDESA). Whereas according to the UN as of 2022 the population is 95.2 million: https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/CD This figure (95.2) is also used by the OIF.

And last year (see: https://www.ethnologue.com/contribution/634671 ) I based my estimate on Ethnologue's total population for Congo. Using the 2022 population figure and using the same reasoning we arrive at 17 million French speakers in Congo. That's 1.5m more than the current Ethnologue's estimate. But still way lower than the OIF's estimate.

My estimate was based on the assumption that ONLY those who attended secondary education (actually, even "upper secondary" given the data of the World Bank only focuses on that) in DR Congo were French speakers. It's probably too strict and we can assume that a significant proportion of those who finished lower secondary and even primary education in Congo (fully in French) also master the French language.

If we include people with completed lower secondary education as French speakers (51% of those 25yo+: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.SEC.CUAT.LO.ZS?end=2017&location... ) then we have 51% * 35% * 95.2 million = 17 million French speakers among those 25yo+ (because 35% of the population is older than 25yo according to the World Bank)

To them, we add people aged 15-25yo who attended secondary education: 19% of DR Congo is between 15-25yo and about 44% of them attended secondary education in French ( https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gross-enrollment-ratio-in-secondary-e... ) so we have 19% * 44% * 95.2 million = 8 million French speakers among them.

Total = 25 million French speakers in DR Congo, considering that only people aged 15yo+ with at least some secondary education are French speakers.

I think this estimate is reasonable and probably conservative, and it is closer to OIF's estimate. I think we could also include people older than 25yo who have completed primary education ( https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.PRM.CUAT.ZS?locations=CD ), this would add 4 million French speakers. So a total of ~29 million (provided I didn't make a mistake in my calculations...). I still think such an estimate would be conservative as primary education can be enough to learn a language.

Another way to consider the problem, according to UNESCO in 2016 the literacy rate among people 15yo+ was 77.04%. 54.2% of the population in DR Congo is 15yo or older (World Bank). So we have 77.04% * 54.2% * 95.2 million = 39.75 million literate people. These people are literate in French because French is the only language of instruction. So based on the literacy rate, we have at least 39.75 million French speakers in DR Congo among people aged 15 and older.

There's still a 9 million people difference compared to the OIF figure. This can be explained because some illiterate adults (15yo+) do speak French (even though they can't read and write it) and some young people also speak French.

My recommendation:

• Be on the conservative side and consider that there are 39.75 million French speakers in DR Congo, based on the literacy rate (UNESCO data, so reliable).
• Or trust the OIF and consider that there are 48,925,000 French speakers in DR Congo.